USDA data show U.S. biofuel policy has widened the gap between U.S. and world vegetable oil prices, cutting U.S. vegetable oil exports in 2022/23 and lifting imports to a record. Vegetable oil used for biofuel rose to about 19 billion pounds in 2022/23, up roughly 4.5 billion pounds from the prior year.
Strong biofuel demand absorbed vegetable oil supply and reshaped trade flows, supporting global vegetable oil prices; shifts in policy could alter this support.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.