
CoBank analysts expect US soybean crush capacity to expand 23% over three years to meet renewable diesel demand. They forecast growing imports of vegetable oils, tallow and used cooking oil, plus a rising soybean meal surplus.
They also expect record crush margins to fade to low or moderate levels in the near term.
Expanding crush capacity and rising oil imports cap soybean oil prices and push meal supplies higher, which weighs on meal values and limits crush margins.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.