A University of Missouri FAPRI baseline report projects renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel production to grow over the next decade while biodiesel output declines. It forecasts soybean oil prices remaining supported, with soybean prices falling to $10.73 per bushel in 2024-25.
Canola oil production is also expected to rise to meet biobased diesel demand.
Rising renewable diesel demand supports soybean oil prices, while the resulting higher crush pushes more soybean meal into the market and weighs on meal prices.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.