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Rabobank's ten-year outlook expects expanding US crush capacity to push more soy oil and soymeal into the market, with renewable diesel absorbing the extra oil. Soymeal production is projected to outpace domestic animal protein growth, which requires greater export growth.
The analysis concludes that soy oil covering 25% of renewable diesel feedstock is unlikely due to land, margin, and price limits.
Soymeal oversupply pressures meal prices, which matters directly for feed buyers, while soy oil remains supported by biofuel demand.
rabobank.comAndrick Payen AnalystJul 19, 2022After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
