A Cerulogy report for ICCT finds US renewable diesel expansion may be limited by feedstock availability and weak policy support. The report projects some announced capacity, which could reach over 5 billion gallons by 2024, will be delayed or cancelled.
Feedstock limits mean less soybean oil demand from renewable diesel than announced capacity implies, which weakens the bullish case for soybean oil and soybeans.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.