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RIN prices fell sharply over the prior nine months, with D4 and D6 RINs closing near $0.56 and $0.555 in late March, down from above $1.50 a year earlier. The decline followed EPA's July 2023 RFS volume targets for 2023-2025.
The analysis attributes part of the fall to a lower soybean oil to heating oil (BOHO) spread and to excess RIN supply relative to mandates.
Lower RIN values reduce the extra income biofuel producers receive, cutting the economic incentive to run biodiesel and renewable diesel plants. That weakens demand for soybean oil and other fats used as feedstock.
decision-innovation.comDIS TeamApr 1, 2024After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
