
USDA economists report uncertainty over renewable diesel and biodiesel demand is weighing on soybean and canola oil markets. USDA cut its 2024-25 biomass-based diesel production estimate to 13.25 billion pounds, and canola oil use for biofuel fell sharply in January.
Weaker biofuel feedstock demand reduces vegetable oil use, pressuring soybean oil and canola meal/oil prices, though expected production recovery to meet 2025 obligations limits downside.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.