
EPA released proposed 2025 and 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations, with biomass-based diesel at 7.5 billion RINs for 2026. The industry had sought 5.25 billion gallons, and 169 pending small refinery exemptions could reduce real compliance demand.
Proposed volume growth supports soybean oil demand, but pending small refinery exemptions could erode compliance, tempering the bullish effect on vegetable oil prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.