
The EPA issued a supplemental proposed rule revising Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements for 2026 and 2027 to account for small refinery exemptions granted on August 22, 2025. It proposes either 100% or 50% reallocation of the 2023-25 exempted volumes, about 2.18 or 1.09 billion gallons.
Reallocating exempted gallons would raise biomass-based diesel demand for soybean oil and feedstocks, supporting soybean oil and soybean prices, with the size of the increase depending on which option is finalized.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.