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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City argues that U.S. corn and soybean supply has grown and is projected to keep rising, with exports unlikely to absorb the increase. It concludes that biofuel policy-driven demand will be critical to supporting prices.
If biofuel mandates are the main outlet for expanding supply, changes to ethanol and biodiesel policy would largely determine whether corn and soybean prices hold up.
kansascityfed.orgFrancisco Scott, Ayesha CooraySep 26, 2025After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
