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USDA's December WASDE kept its 2025-26 forecast of 15.5 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel use and left the season-average soybean oil price at 53 cents per pound. It revised 2024-25 biofuel soybean oil use down to 11.758 billion pounds and raised global soybean production and ending stocks.
An unchanged biofuel use forecast with higher global stocks is neutral for soybean oil and soybean prices, with the global supply increase a modest bearish factor for soybeans.
ukragroconsult.comDec 11, 2025After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
