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A Lazard Geopolitical Advisory analysis argues that the US-China economic relationship is changing but not disappearing. It notes that surveyed Western businesses expect decoupling to strengthen in 2023, while the Biden administration has said it favors de-risking over decoupling.
Ongoing uncertainty over US-China trade rules and export controls keeps risk premiums in agricultural trade flows, though no direct price change is named.
foreignaffairs.comJami Miscik, Peter Orszag, and Theodore BunzelMay 24, 2023After 152 past geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 464 past geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 62 past geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
