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Above-average yields are expected for the U.S. and Ontario corn and soybean crops. China is buying soybeans, meal, and vegetable oil from countries not hit by its tariffs, which is distorting trade flows and adding volatility to the soybean complex.
Lower prices are also boosting export demand for North American wheat.
A large U.S. crop combined with diverted Chinese demand weighs on soybean and corn values, while lower prices support wheat export competitiveness.
farmtario.comJerry KlassenJul 19, 2024After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
