China's state planner said its grain supply would not be affected by losing US feed grain and oilseed imports, citing ample substitutes and reserves. Inbound soybean shipments from Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are expected to exceed 30 million tons in April to June, a record for the quarter.
China has shifted purchases toward Brazilian soybeans because of the trade war.
A record South American supply and Chinese reluctance to buy US feed grains and oilseeds reduce demand for US soybeans, corn and sorghum and point to cheaper feed ingredients.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.