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Reuters reported Ukraine and Russia nearly reached a Black Sea shipping deal in March 2024, but Kyiv withdrew at the last minute. Russia cancelled the earlier grain initiative in July 2023 and had complained that its own food and fertiliser exports faced sanctions and embargo obstacles.
Uncertainty over whether Black Sea corridor shipping will be guaranteed keeps a risk premium in wheat, corn and fertiliser-linked markets, and a deal would ease it.
just-food.comAndy CoyneApr 18, 2024After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
