
Russia's 2025 wheat crop was confirmed by Rosstat at 91.36 million tonnes, the third-biggest on record. Exports were slow in the first half of the 2025/26 season, running 11-12% below last year, with cumulative wheat exports just above 25 million tonnes and a 20 million tonne grain export quota for February to June.
A large Russian crop and ample exportable stocks add supply pressure to global wheat, though the quota limits near-term shipments and prices have been very stable.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.