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Australia's harvest is showing higher protein levels, with most states producing Australian Premium Hard grade. The ASW-APW spread has narrowed from $10 to $3 per tonne as the crop, expected to be the second-biggest on record, is harvested.
A large, higher-protein Australian crop adds export supply and narrows the premium for high-protein wheat, which weighs on export prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.