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The USDA's March world supply and demand report raised global wheat supply by 5.4 million mt, with production up 3.4 million mt led by Australia. Consumption rose 2.9 million mt and global trade fell 920,000 mt, with Russian exports cut by 1 million mt.
Global ending stocks were still 3.5% below last year at 260.1 million mt.
Larger global supplies and lower trade from Russia point to a mixed balance, with more exporter stocks weighing on prices but reduced Russian shipments offering some support. Ample supply from Australia and Argentina tends to cap wheat export prices.
saskwheat.caMar 17, 2025After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA report cut Russian exports by 1 million mt and showed ending stocks still below last year, which supports prices, though higher global supply is partly offsetting.
