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Polish Economic Institute reports Ukraine's wheat exports fell about 60% year on year in August, and Russia's fell about 56%, after attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure and ships. CBOT wheat futures rose about 30% year on year in August to their highest levels in over three years.
Russia and Ukraine together supply roughly a third of global wheat exports, so their export losses transmit quickly into world wheat prices and feed grain costs.
pie.net.plSep 4, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
