
Argentina's farm exports totalled about $19.7 billion in 2023, a 51% drop from the prior year, largely due to drought. Milei's government proposed raising soymeal and soyoil export taxes to 33% from 31%, and corn and wheat export taxes to 15% from 13%.
Higher export taxes reduce Argentine farmer selling and can shift export flows, supporting world soymeal, soyoil, corn and wheat prices while the taxes remain a pending policy risk.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 182 past bullish policy events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.