
President Milei announced that agricultural export duties will rise when the temporary January reduction ends in late June. The cut had lowered soybean duties from 33% to 26%, soybean derivatives from 31% to 24.5%, and grains such as corn, wheat, barley and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%.
Exporters asked for the reduction to be made permanent.
Higher duties from July would raise the cost of Argentine exports and could pull forward sales now, tightening near-term supply of soymeal, soy oil and corn while supporting offshore prices.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.