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Official and private forecasters expect another record Brazilian soybean crop in 2026, but weather is uncertain as La Niña strengthens. Conab forecasts 2025/26 soybean output at 177.6 million tonnes and corn at 138.2 million tonnes, down 1%.
Brazil's record 2024/25 soybean exports were about 112 million tonnes.
A large expected Brazilian crop caps prices and keeps export competition strong, but weather risk could still shift the balance toward tighter supply.
profarmer.comHillari MasonNov 6, 2025After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
