Soybean & Corn Advisor's Michael Cordonnier estimates 2025 U.S. corn planted area at 94.5 million acres, up from 90.6 million in 2024, with a possible 95.0+ million if April weather favors planting. He puts the initial corn yield at 180.0 bu/ac and notes that 53% of intended corn acres and 40% of soybean acres are in drought areas.
Larger expected corn acreage is bearish for corn prices, while drought exposure on a large share of acres offsets some of that pressure and supports yield risk premium.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.