
Pro Farmer reports that the NWS 90-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures across the US through August and below-normal rain for much of the western Corn Belt and Plains. About 22% of corn area and 17% of soybean area were in drought as of May 13.
Hot, dry weather forecasts in the western Corn Belt raise yield risk for corn and soybeans, which supports prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.