
A new cold wave brought frosts to Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and nearby states where late-planted safrinha corn is exposed. Agrural cut its safrinha estimate to 59.1 million tonnes, 22 million below initial potential, and traders are washing out export contracts to the domestic market.
Export losses from Brazil remove a major corn supply source, and contract washouts signal tighter export availability, supporting global corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.