
USDA's July WASDE projected U.S. soybean production at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million bushels, on a lower harvested area. The area was cut 2.6 million acres from June to 87.5 million acres, partly due to limited precipitation in some growing regions.
Iowa farmer members were briefed on the report in Washington, D.C.
A smaller projected U.S. soybean crop tightens the supply outlook for soybeans and soy products used in feed. The lower output forecast supports soybean prices, though rainfall variability could still change the crop estimate.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.