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Diesel's premium to crude and its supply-demand gauge have collapsed this year. The rout reflects weaker shipping-industry buying and a mild winter, and the novel coronavirus in China has deepened the slide through travel restrictions and weaker investor sentiment.
Lower diesel demand and a weaker crack spread reduce energy-linked costs for feed transport and processing, while weak sentiment spills into other commodities. The outbreak adds downside risk to fuel demand.
bloomberg.comJack WittelsJan 28, 2020After 13 past bearish disease events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -5.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.3% to +1.2%), and -6.1% over 20.
After 32 past bearish disease events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -5.2% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -15.0% to -2.4%), and -5.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
