
Crude prices fell about 3% to three-month lows, with Brent below $60 and U.S. crude near $52.68, as China's coronavirus death toll rose and businesses shut down. China extended the Lunar New Year holiday to February 2 and global equities declined.
Expected weaker Chinese oil demand from virus-related lockdowns pressures crude prices, lowering diesel and energy costs but also signaling weaker Chinese economic activity.
After 26 past bearish disease events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -6.0% over 5 sessions (15% higher; middle half -13.3% to -2.0%), and -6.8% over 20.
After 32 past bearish disease events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -5.2% over 5 sessions (13% higher; middle half -15.0% to -2.4%), and -5.7% over 20.
After 13 past bearish disease events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -5.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -6.3% to +1.2%), and -6.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Crude fell about 3% on Jan 27 as China's virus death toll rose and the Lunar New Year holiday was extended, hitting demand expectations.
Crude fell about 3% on Jan 27 with Brent below $60 as China's virus death toll rose and the Lunar New Year holiday was extended, cutting demand expectations.