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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 2,222 mil bu vs prior 1,342 (+65.6%, bearish); US soybean ending stocks 335 mil bu vs prior 210 (+59.5%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 4.8 $/bu vs prior 6.6 (-27.3%, bearish); US soybean meal price 365 $/st vs prior 465 (-21.5%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 122.5 mmt vs prior 100.29 (+22.1%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 12.1 $/bu vs prior 14.3 (-15.4%, bearish); US corn exports 2,100 mil bu vs prior 1,850 (+13.5%, bullish); US soybean oil price 58 ¢/lb vs prior 64 (-9.4%, bearish); US…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
May 12 WASDE showed a huge bearish surprise, with 2023/24 US corn ending stocks up 65% from the prior figure and a much lower season-average price, which likely triggered the sharp one-day selloff.
May 12 WASDE showed a large bearish surprise in 2023/24 US corn ending stocks (2,222 vs 1,342 mil bu) and a sharply lower season-average price, triggering the selloff.
The May 12 WASDE (first 2023/24 balance sheets) was bearish across the complex, with higher soybean and corn ending stocks and a sharply lower projected soybean oil price (58 vs 64 c/lb), which plausibly triggered the heavy sell-off in soybean oil on the next trading day (May 15).
The May 12 WASDE raised US and world soybean stocks and cut the projected soybean oil price from 64 to 58 cents/lb, a bearish supply and price shock that points directly at the soyoil drop.
May 12 WASDE showed far larger than expected 2023/24 US soybean ending stocks (335 vs 210 mil bu) and lower price projections, a bearish supply shock that started the selloff.
The May 12 WASDE showed far larger projected 2023/24 US corn ending stocks and a lower farm price, a bearish supply shock that set the downward tone for the following two weeks.
