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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 260 mil bu vs prior 305 (-14.8%, bullish); US soybean meal price 340 $/st vs prior 320 (+6.3%, bullish); US corn ending stocks 2,008 mil bu vs prior 2,153 (-6.7%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.5 $/bu vs prior 3.35 (+4.5%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price 9.5 $/bu vs prior 9.1 (+4.4%, bullish); US wheat exports 900 mil bu vs prior 875 (+2.9%, bullish); World soybean ending stocks 66.31 mmt vs prior 68.21 (-2.8%, bullish); US corn exports 1,950 mil bu vs prior 1,900 (+2.6%, bullish); US wheat…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The June 10 WASDE cut US corn ending stocks 6.7% (2,008 vs 2,153 mil bu), raised corn exports and lifted the season-average price forecast, a bullish supply/demand shift that likely drove the Monday June 13 corn rally after the Friday report, with bullish soybean data adding sentiment support.
