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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 785 mil bu vs prior 580 (+35.3%, bearish); US corn ending stocks 1,684 mil bu vs prior 1,552 (+8.5%, bearish); US soybean meal price 315 $/st vs prior 335 (-6.0%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 105.94 mmt vs prior 98.27 (+7.8%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.6 $/bu vs prior 3.8 (-5.3%, bearish); US corn exports 2,350 mil bu vs prior 2,225 (+5.6%, bullish); US wheat exports 1,025 mil bu vs prior 975 (+5.1%, bullish); US wheat ending stocks 935 mil bu vs prior 985 (-5.1%, bullish); US soybean…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WASDE surprise of a 35% rise in US soybean ending stocks to 785 million bushels, plus lower price projections, was a strongly bearish supply shock.
The August WASDE raised US corn ending stocks 8.5% above the prior estimate on a larger crop and cut the season-average price to $3.60, a bearish supply surprise; the 1-day window ending 2018-08-13 likely captures the repricing after the Friday noon release.
WASDE balance sheet surprises, with soybean ending stocks up 35% and the soybean meal price forecast cut 6%, were bearish for soymeal.
