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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 2,127 mil bu vs prior 2,352 (-9.6%, bullish); US corn exports 2,225 mil bu vs prior 2,050 (+8.5%, bullish); US soybean meal price 340 $/st vs prior 320 (+6.3%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 555 mil bu vs prior 530 (+4.7%, bearish); US soybean oil price 31.5 ¢/lb vs prior 32.5 (-3.1%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 94.4 mmt vs prior 98.14 (-3.8%, bullish); US wheat exports 925 mil bu vs prior 950 (-2.6%, bearish); US wheat ending stocks 1,034 mil bu vs prior 1,009 (+2.5%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The March WASDE cut US corn ending stocks sharply (-9.6%) on higher exports, a bullish supply/demand surprise that likely fed continued buying, though it was released two trading days before the 2018-03-12 move, so the direct link is only partial.
