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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 245 mil bu vs prior 230 (+6.5%, bearish); US corn ending stocks 1,388 mil bu vs prior 1,470 (-5.6%, bullish); US wheat ending stocks 610 mil bu vs prior 639 (-4.5%, bullish); US wheat exports 825 mil bu vs prior 800 (+3.1%, bullish); World corn ending stocks 306.68 mmt vs prior 312.94 (-2.0%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WASDE showed US soybean ending stocks (245 mil bu) above expectations and above the prior estimate, a bearish surprise that pressured the soy complex including meal.
The Aug 12 WASDE raised US soybean ending stocks to 245 mil bu from 230 (bearish supply surprise), which plausibly pressured soybean meal at the start of the 5-day window, though the size of the -11% drop likely also reflects other factors such as crop weather and technical selling, and the bullish corn and wheat revisions partly offset it.
The WASDE showed US soybean ending stocks above expectations (245 vs 227-230 mil bu), a bearish supply surprise for soy products.
US soybean ending stocks came in above the prior estimate, which was bearish for supply.
