
Brazil's IPCA inflation accelerated to 0.38% month-on-month in July, slightly above expectations, driven by a 3.15% rise in gasoline after Petrobras raised prices. Twelve-month inflation reached 4.50%, at the upper limit of the central bank's target band.
Higher inflation raises expectations of Selic rate hikes, which tends to strengthen the real and can reduce Brazilian domestic feed and livestock input costs over time.
After 40 past report events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.