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The Brazilian real and Mexican peso each fell at least 1.8% against the dollar on Tuesday, and the Indonesian rupiah dropped more than 2%, prompting Bank Indonesia to intervene. Carry traders unwound positions amid volatility and a resurgent dollar.
China also unexpectedly weakened its daily yuan reference rate.
Weaker emerging-market currencies raise the local-currency cost of imports and can make exporters like Brazil and Mexico more price-competitive, while the stronger dollar pressures dollar-denominated commodity prices. Chinese yuan weakness can also signal softer import demand.
bloomberg.comMaria Elena Vizcaino, Srinivasan SivabalanApr 16, 2024After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated on the final day of the window, it describes a broad EM selloff driven by a resurgent dollar, higher US yields and carry-trade unwinding, with the real falling at least 1.8% that day, which directly explains the BRL weakness.
EM currency weakness on 2024-04-16 shows a broad dollar surge on higher yields, contributing to the broad index move.
