Corn and soybean futures rebounded on July 14, 2017, after a week of sharp losses, as traders reassessed weather risk from hot, dry conditions in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Plains. September corn rose 1.8% to $3.76 1/4 and August soybeans gained 1.4% to $9.89, though both remained down for the week after a USDA report left yields unchanged and raised stock forecasts.
Renewed heat forecasts for the Plains and Corn Belt revive yield risk that could support feed grain and soymeal prices, but the bearish USDA stock increases limit how far prices can recover.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.