Grain and soybean futures rose as less rain fell on the Corn Belt than expected, particularly in Iowa. Forecasters saw significant showers not returning for about two weeks, putting up to a quarter of Midwest crops at risk of stress.
Eastern Midwest fields are too wet, and traders are cautious on shifting forecasts.
Dryness during the pollination and pod-setting period threatens US corn and soybean yields, which supports prices. Forecast changes are driving volatile trade.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.