Soybean futures rose to a four-and-a-half month high as traders bought on the La Niña risk and dryness in Argentina and southern Brazil. Informa trimmed its Brazilian soybean estimate to 110 million tons and cut its corn estimate to 89 million.
Dryness-driven yield risk and Informa's smaller Brazilian crop estimates tighten South American supplies, supporting soybean, meal and corn prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.