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The 10-year French OAT yield rose to 3.90 percent, its highest since June 2009, after renewed US-Iran tensions following overnight attacks and Trump's statements ending a ceasefire. The spread over the German Bund widened to 84 basis points, the highest since last October.
OATs now yield more than BTP bonds of the same maturity.
A geopolitical risk-off move lifting European yields tightens financial conditions and can strengthen the dollar, with indirect effects on energy costs and feed input pricing.
en.ilsole24ore.comJul 8, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
