
Goldman Sachs strategist Teresa Alves told Valor that the Brazilian real should stay relatively strong and not depreciate further, citing elevated oil prices, an expected unchanged Fed and high Brazilian interest rates. She acknowledged volatility may rise ahead of the presidential election.
A stable-to-stronger real makes Brazilian soybean and corn exports less competitive in dollar terms, which can support US and other origin prices, while election volatility adds risk to Brazilian FX-linked export pricing.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.