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The euro is falling toward parity with the dollar amid surging gas prices and warnings of a major Russian gas supply cut. Natural gas has doubled from June lows and a pipeline maintenance dispute between Russia and Germany has escalated.
Energy supply stress in Europe weighs on the euro and raises fears of a winter energy crisis, which can lift energy-linked costs for feed production and push European demand toward alternative feed sources.
reuters.comJul 6, 2022After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Surging gas prices and the Russia-Germany pipeline maintenance dispute raised the risk of a gas supply cut, pushing the euro toward parity. Dated 07-06, so it mostly reinforces the move's end.
