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S&P Global estimates Russian wheat exports at about 32.5 million tonnes and Ukrainian exports at about 11.5 million tonnes for 2026-27, with Black Sea restrictions pressuring routes and freight costs. The analysis says continued export limits through June 2027 could cut Russia's 2027-28 wheat output from 85.8 to 78.4 million tonnes, with spring wheat area falling about 20%.
Expected longer-term supply losses from Black Sea restrictions and higher alternative-route costs point to firmer wheat prices ahead, as the lost production would tighten global exporter supplies beyond the current marketing year.
akhbrna.aeإسراء احمدNov 15, 2026After 292 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
