A recent heatwave in the Northern Plains has left soil moisture depleted across the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Minnesota, with the U.S. Drought Monitor expected to show expanding dryness. The author argues that rainfall deficits in parts of Nebraska and Iowa date back to 2025.
Dry soils in the Corn Belt raise concern for corn and soybean yields if dryness persists into the growing season, which could support feed grain prices. The article is opinion-based with no new measured crop loss yet.
After 1,469 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.