
Louisiana and Alabama governors have asked EPA to partly waive 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard volumes, citing severe economic harm to their states. Farm and biofuel groups, including the Renewable Fuels Association and the American Soybean Association, are urging EPA to reject the petitions.
University of Illinois economists estimate the 2027 biomass-based diesel requirement of 963 million RIN gallons a month exceeds U.S. plant capacity of about 878 million.
A waiver that cut mandated biodiesel volumes would reduce soybean oil demand and could weaken crush margins and soybean basis. Rejection would keep feedstock demand firm, supporting soybean oil prices.
After 197 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.