China's corn futures main contract fell below 1,800 yuan/t on November 15, about 30% below the March high. The state reserve purchase price was cut to 1 yuan/jin in September, and an October 22 state reserve auction of over 1 million tonnes failed to sell.
Soymeal and rapeseed meal futures also weakened.
Reserve stocks may reach 50 million tonnes or more, and the surplus pressures corn and related meal prices. Cheaper corn lowers starch and sugar costs, which could ease downstream feed-related demand and make Chinese starch more competitive for export.
After 315 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.