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The FAO's November 6 bulletin puts 2026 world cereal output at 2.999 billion tonnes, the second-highest on record and slightly below the 2025 peak. Rice output is down 2.5% on El Niño and weak margins, while world cereal trade is forecast to shrink 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes, with wheat trade down 8.6% and maize trade up 2.2%.
Lower rice output and a shrinking wheat trade tighten supply for importers, while rising stocks cap prices, so the net effect is mixed across grains.
action-agricole-picarde.comActuagriNov 15, 2026After 92 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
