USDA's November Crop Production report put 2017 U.S. rice output at 178.4 million cwt, down 20% from 2016 and the lowest since 1996. Harvested area fell 23% to about 2.39 million acres as acreage shifted to soybeans and cotton.
Nearby rough rice futures in Chicago were up nearly 30% from a year earlier.
A sharp drop in U.S. supply with tighter acreage supports rough rice prices and reduces exportable supply for buyers. Higher rice values can also lift the cost of rice-based feed ingredients.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.