
Romania has accused Russia of systematic strikes on civilian ships as Moscow tries to shut the Odesa corridor, which carries most of Ukraine's seaborne grain. Drone and missile strikes have hit dry cargo vessels, warehouses and fuel depots around Odesa, and no ships entered the ports on 22 July.
Odesa handles most of Ukraine's seaborne grain, so a de facto blockade removes a large share of Black Sea wheat and corn supply and pushes prices higher.
After 363 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.