
South Africa has a record maize harvest of 17.6 million tonnes against annual needs of about 12 million. Economist Wandile Sihlobo expects meat and vegetables to stay affordable, with starches rising slightly, as an El Niño drought season approaches.
A large domestic maize surplus cushions South African feed costs and reduces import demand, which is mildly bearish for maize, while El Niño raises risk for the next season.
After 358 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.