
India is planning an increase in its fertilizer subsidy, which is expected to boost sales of DAP and complex fertilizers. Those products had been held back by supply constraints, high retail prices and weak seasonal demand ahead of the rabi season.
A larger subsidy lowers farmer costs and could revive phosphate and complex fertilizer purchases in northern and central India, supporting import demand for DAP. The effect on feed-ingredient prices is indirect, but firmer phosphate demand could support fertilizer prices.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.